Quantitative Decision Consulting: Three of Our Case Stories
The three case stories show what we mean by quantitative decision consulting. We focus on those decisions where quantitative analysis, performed by us in collaboration with client teams, is key. These are typically of strategic nature, and occasionally operational.
Our projects are sponsored by senior executives (SVP or higher) and involve mid-level and higher executives.
From U.S. National Strategy to Regional Strategies
We worked with a leading U.S. FMCG that had a national focus. They felt they needed more granular strategies at the state level to set resource allocation priorities and optimize the price ladders. The work used the same concepts we apply in PoluSim, with additional perspectives on opportunities in ethnic markets, the impact of Trump tariffs and ICE activities.
The client lead was the SVP of Strategy, Insights & Analytics. The steering committee consisted of CEO, CFO, and functional heads.
The work took us across all functions of the client, from marketing all the way to investor relations. Importantly, a series of discussions and workshops with the senior leaders made the strategic perspective realistic, yet ambitious.
The outcome was a quantitative decision support deck (including accompanying underlying spreadsheets and statistical models) containing clear recommendations on where to play and how to win. With this, the company moved from heuristic rules-of-thumb to an analytically anchored decision approach.
Expanding an Already High-Performing Company
One of Colombia’s largest companies needed a more fact-based decision approach. While immensely successful in Colombia, it also saw major growth opportunities in neighboring countries, and perhaps in the U.S. Also, the market was shifting with some categories doing exceptionally well. How should resources be allocated?
The client leads were the VP of marketing and head of strategy & insights. We were supported by a team of 20 managers, as well opco executives in the six countries covered. the work involved several trips to Colombia were we held joint workshops.
The deliverables were quantified strategies for Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Panama, Costa Rica, and Mexico. As a leave-behind, we also ported data from the work into PoluSim.
Finding Opportunities in Stagnant Markets
A global French consumer goods company found itself in largely declining categories. But the decline was uneven and there was even growth in some countries. Moreover certain segments did well. The problem was how to decide where the long-term opportunities were. till then , decisions were often based on judgment rather than judgment & facts.
The work was commissioned by the SVP of strategy who also was the lead on the client side. The steering committee consisted of the most senior leaders.
We worked interactively with a client team to build the fact base and to statistically determine and quantify the the strategic demand drivers (5-10 years horizon). Among them were obvious ones like income and age profiles of customers, but also behavioral drivers, and the structure of educational systems. That is, a combination of macro, consumer, and institutional characteristics.
Solving for this is not done in one complex statistical model. Rather, it is the combination of various models that are synthesized into holistic picture. We are not statistics consultants (there are too many of them). Rather we expertly use statistical tools to support the decision making. We know most statistical methods, but it does not mean they are at the center of what we. Decisions are..
The outcome was a country-by-country, segment-by-segment report on what to prioritize. It was vetted in workshops with key stakeholders (BU heads, head of strategy, head of insights, etc.) so that the decision architecture was well embedded. Again, we ported data and findings into PoluSim as a leave behind.