TELLUSANT, INC.

U.S. E-commerce Trends as of Q1 2026

At long last, e-commerce data are now available from FRED. Because of the delay (government shutdown?), two quarters were recently added.

E-commerce continuous to grow. It looks like the covid bump has bee n eliminated, and e-commerce growth now follows the earlier trendline.

This steady increase continues to put pressure on traditional retail. In just 5 years, e-commerce has grown five percentage points (relative to covid-cleansed trend), or 40%. Staggering number.

What we see is a version of boiling the frog. Each increment may not look like much, but combined the change is massive.

Nowcast: E-commerce trends Q1 2026

These analyses were previously published on Tellusant’s LinkedIn page and can be found there.