Nowcasts & Recurring Analyses
Tellusant updates and publishes these models on a regular basis, year in and year out. They range from daily to quarterly.
Global Economic Growth 1970-2027
How is the world economy performing in 2026? And what can we expect in 2027? IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) was recently released and we use it to assess performance by year from 1970 till 2027, illustrated with a Gauss curve. Semiannually
Economic Sentiment Tool
This AI agent analyses the economic sentiment in almost any country based on written reports that have been selected by Tellusant (this approach avoids anomalous artifacts). Get a snapshot of current or past sentiment along various dimensions. Daily
Quantitative Risk Explorer
Interactive micro-site for how market and financial risks compare around the world. Daily
Nowcast: U.S. Recession Probability Nine Months Out
Building on Ben Bernanke’s recession probability model, we created an improvement using exactly the same the data. Bernanke and the Fed uses a P controller, we use a P.I.D controller. The improvement is large. Daily
Beige Book Nowcast: Sentiment Analysis of Economic Activity
The Fed’s Beige Book, Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, covers current economic activity for the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Tellusant converts it into a quantitative nowcast. Sesqui-monthly
E-commerce Trends
View our quarterly analysis of trends in U.S. e-commerce relative to total retail. Based on quarterly FRED ECOMPCTSA data. Quarterly
Source: Tellusant, Inc.